From Worst to First - NFL Divisional Analysis
Key Question: How many times, over the last 10 seasons, has a team gone from worst in their division to first?
If your NFL team was the worst team in the division in 2022/23, then this is the analysis for you.
Throughout this article, we have analyzed the last 10 seasons to calculate the likelihood of a team going from the worst team in a division to the best .
This season's Jacksonville Jaguars are the most recent team to go from worst to first in their division, the AFC South. Coaching improved dramatically, allowing for a generational Quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, to reach his true potential. The Jaguars went from 3 wins in 2021, to 9 wins in 2022. On the way to the top, it helped that they bypassed the declining Titans, who dropped from 12 wins to 7 wins.
The following analysis is split into three key areas:
Divisional comparisons
Team analysis
Playoff success
Note: Tiebreakers apply. If two teams had the same record in a season, only the team that finished in 4th by NFL tiebreaker rules and reached 1st in the following season would count as going from worst to first.
Divisional Comparison
On only 10 occasions over the last 10 seasons, have teams have gone from 4th in a division in the previous season to 1st in the division in the following season.
2014 and 2019 were the only two seasons where zero 4th place teams, from the previous season, finished 1st in their division the following year. This provides some hope to all fans of the last place teams from the 2022 season, as its extremely likely one of the 8 last place teams wins their division next season. I’m looking at you: Jets, Browns, Texans, Broncos, Commanders, Bears, Falcons and Cardinals. Unfortunately for supporters of these teams, it is unlikely that more than one of you finishes first in your respective divisions next season. There has only been 2 seasons with more than 1 worst to first team in a single season, over the last 10 seasons: 2017 (Eagles and Jaguars) and 2018 (Texans and Bears).
When comparing the divisions, the NFC East has the most frequent worst to first occurrences. With teams going from worst to first an astonishing 5 times in the last 10 seasons! This could be argued as a positive for the competitive integrity of this division. Or, it could be an indicator of underwhelming long-term team building from all four teams, which results in zero juggernaut teams and a divisional dynasty that usually accompanies a juggernaut. For example, in the AFC West or AFC East there is zero worst to first teams over the last 10 seasons. Only 2 different teams have won each of those divisions respectively, over the last 10 years, reducing the opportunities for different teams to win the division. The Chiefs have won 7 of the last 10 NFC West titles and the Patriots have Won 7 of the last 10 AFC East titles (With the Broncos and Bills winning the other 3 respectively). This leaves no room for teams, like the Jets, to jump from worst to first.
The AFC South is the only other division in which a team goes from worst to first in more than one season. With one appearance from the AFC North and NFC North making up the rest of the 10.
Team Comparison
The Jaguars, Eagles and Commanders are the only teams to go from worst to first more than once. With the Bengals, Texans, Cowboys and Bears making up the rest of the list, with one appearance each.
The Texans, Commanders and Bears, will be hoping to repeat their previous achievement next season, with all 3 having finished last in the 2022 season. Although, the Commanders have significantly less ground to make up on their division rivals to become a playoff team, having won 8 games this season. The Bears and Texans won only 3.
Playoff Success
How far did all the worst to first teams reach once they made the playoffs?
Arguably the most important piece of analysis for all the fans of the 8 teams who finished last in their divisions this season. The fans, who are hoping against hope, that your team will go from 4th in the division to winning it all.
Good news: 5 teams out of the 10 did win at least one playoff game, after going from worst to first that season.
Even better news: 1 team did go from the worst to first that season and ended up winning it all. The 2017 Philadelphia Eagles. Nick Foles playoff heroics are impossible to forget.
Bad news: There is a strong chance that your team gets knocked out in the wildcard round. However, the plan is to follow up this analysis with further detail on the longer term prospects of teams after going from worst to first, so don’t lose hope just yet…
